The Italian machine tool industry is facing a difficult conclusion to 2024, with a marked decline across most economic indicators. However, forecasts for 2025 suggest a slight recovery, albeit at a modest pace, indicating that while the industry is not out of the woods, there are signs of a gradual rebound.
2024: A Year of Setbacks
According to preliminary figures from UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, the Italian association for machine tools, robots, and automation systems manufacturers, the industry is set to report a notable downturn by the end of 2024. The total production value is expected to reach €6.745 billion, representing an 11.4% decline compared to 2023. This drop is mainly attributed to a significant reduction in domestic deliveries, which are forecasted to fall by 33.5% to €2.255 billion. The decline is tied to weaker investment from domestic users and lower demand for machinery within the local market.
One of the most striking statistics for 2024 is the drop in household consumption, which is anticipated to fall by 34.8% to €3.795 billion. This decline is also reflected in imports, which are expected to drop by 36.5%, bringing their total to €1.54 billion.
However, the picture is more positive when looking at the export market. Exports are projected to increase by 6.3%, reaching a new record of €4.49 billion. This growth in international sales has played a key role in cushioning the impact of the weaker domestic market, highlighting the ongoing demand for Italian machinery abroad.
Top Export Destinations for Italian Machine Tools
UCIMU's analysis of data from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) for the first eight months of 2024 reveals that the primary destinations for Italian machine tools were:
- United States: €419 million (+17.8%)
- Germany: €243 million (+12.3%)
- China: €138 million (-15.3%)
- India: €132 million (+100%)
- France: €125 million (-9.3%)
With this performance, Italy’s export-to-production ratio reached 66.6%, underlining the increasing significance of international markets for the country's machine tool sector.
Outlook for 2025: Modest Growth Expected
Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast for Italy’s machine tool industry is more positive, though growth is expected to be modest. UCIMU predicts that production will rise by 2.9%, reaching €6.94 billion. This uptick will be driven by steady export performance, which is expected to grow slightly by 0.3%, reaching €4.505 billion, marking another record-high figure.
Domestic deliveries are expected to rebound by 8%, climbing to €2.435 billion, as domestic demand is forecast to recover, albeit gradually. As a result, Italian consumption of machine tools is predicted to rise by 7.2%, totaling €4.07 billion.
Imports are also expected to see a moderate increase, with a 6.2% growth, reaching €1.635 billion. The export-to-production ratio is expected to dip slightly to 64.9%, reflecting the limited scale of recovery projected.
Conclusion
Although 2024 has been a challenging year for Italy’s machine tool industry, with significant declines in domestic consumption and demand, the outlook for 2025 is more promising, albeit with slow recovery. The industry’s strong export performance continues to be a bright spot, and moderate improvements in both domestic demand and imports offer hope for a gradual rebound in the coming year.
