The outlook for the automotive sector in North America during 2025 looks complex due to several factors impacting vehicle production and distribution in the region. According to data from S&P Global Mobility, the business environment and inventory dynamics are undergoing significant changes that are affecting manufacturers and suppliers.

According to the Guanajuato Automotive Cluster (CLAUGTO), one of the main risks for the industry is the dependence on imports from Canada and Mexico to the United States, which account for 22% of sales in the country. Tariff tensions, with possible increases of up to 25%, could reduce competitiveness and affect investment in new production capacity. This scenario would impact manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Nissan, Stellantis, Toyota and General Motors, which have high exposure in the region.

In a statement, the cluster highlights that after four years of adjustments, the industry has reached an inventory of 2.82 million units, equivalent to a 46-day supply. However, inventory growth is outpacing sales growth, which is leading manufacturers to readjust their production to adapt to real market demand.  

Factors such as interest rates and the credit environment are also influencing the stabilization of the sector. In terms of light vehicle production, Tesla leads the growth driven by the increase in Cybertruck and low-cost Model Y manufacturing. Stellantis and Toyota also show growth stemming from new programs and supply chain recovery. However, General Motors, Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen face inventory correction and strategic adjustments to optimize their production.

Production projections in North America suggest stability with levels hovering around 16 million units per year through 2032. However, manufacturers must face challenges such as evolving demand, vehicle affordability, production relocation and regulatory uncertainty surrounding electric vehicles.