The 25% auto parts tariff goes into effect on May 3 and marks a watershed for the North American auto industry. In this in-depth analysis, we explore the immediate risks, Mexico's key role and the growing tensions with the US.

On May 3, when the 25% tariff on more than 100 categories of auto parts - including engines, transmissions, steering wheels, hinges and electronic components - takes effect, a COVID-type disruption in the global automotive chain could begin. So warns six of the most influential industry organizations in the U.S., including U.S. and foreign manufacturers, dealers and suppliers, in a joint letter to Donald Trump's cabinet.

The warning is clear: a single supplier outage can cripple an entire assembly line, as it did during the pandemic. The industry has no financial or logistical margin to absorb such an abrupt blow.

May 3 could mark a new watershed in the North American automotive industry. Beyond the immediate impact, a structural transformation is brewing in which Mexico, the U.S. and Canada will have to redefine their rules, capabilities and priorities.

The question is not only whether the chains will withstand the onslaught of tariffs, but also who will be able to adapt more quickly and with greater industrial intelligence. For many, this is a time of danger. For others, it is a historic opportunity.